Is Infinite's slight favoritism over Oxuji Esports justified?
An analysis of whether Infinite's modest favorite status against Oxuji Esports in Map 2 is supported by recent performance and statistics.
The market positions Infinite Gaming as a modest favorite over Oxuji Esports for Map 2 of their upcoming match, with an implied probability of approximately 55%. This pricing likely reflects Infinite's recent performance and map-specific strengths. However, Oxuji's competitive map win rates and recent form suggest potential value in the underdog position.
Why the market is priced here
The approximate 55% implied probability favoring Infinite Gaming is likely based on their recent performance metrics and map-specific advantages. Infinite has demonstrated strong form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches, and boasts higher win rates on key maps such as Dust2 (75%) and Mirage (64%). Conversely, Oxuji Esports has a slightly lower win rate on these maps, with 48% on Dust2 and 40% on Mirage. However, the relatively narrow margin in map win rates and Oxuji's competitive recent form suggest that the market may be underestimating the potential for an upset.
The case for Infinite
- Recent Form: Infinite Gaming has secured victories in 7 of their last 10 matches, indicating strong current performance.
- Map Win Rates: Higher win rates on key maps—75% on Dust2 and 64% on Mirage—suggest a strategic advantage.
- Player Performance: Over the past three months, Infinite's core lineup has achieved a team rating of 1.25, outperforming Oxuji's 1.18.
The case for Oxuji Esports
- Competitive Map Win Rates: Despite being the underdog, Oxuji maintains a 48% win rate on Dust2 and 40% on Mirage, indicating potential competitiveness.
- Recent Performance: Oxuji has won 5 of their last 10 matches, demonstrating resilience and the ability to secure victories.
- Underdog Value: The market's modest favoritism towards Infinite may overlook Oxuji's potential for an upset, presenting value for those considering the underdog position.
By the numbers
| Metric | Infinite Gaming | Oxuji Esports |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 Matches | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Dust2 Win Rate | 75% | 48% |
| Mirage Win Rate | 64% | 40% |
| Team Rating (Past 3 Months) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Average Damage per Round (ADR) | 87.3 | 76.6 |
The data indicates that while Infinite Gaming holds a slight edge in recent performance and map-specific win rates, the margins are not substantial, suggesting a closer contest than the market pricing implies.