Is TDK's heavy favoritism over Ursa justified?

The market currently assigns TDK an approximate implied probability of ~75% to win Map 2 against Ursa in their upcoming CS2 match. This pricing reflects TDK's higher world ranking and recent performance. However, Ursa's recent head-to-head victory over TDK and their competitive form suggest potential value in the underdog position.

Why the market is priced here

TDK's implied probability of ~75% is likely based on their superior world ranking and consistent performance in recent tournaments. TDK is ranked #69 globally, while Ursa holds the #94 position. (hltv.org) This ranking gap suggests a significant skill disparity. However, Ursa's recent 2-1 victory over TDK in March 2026 indicates that the underdog has the capability to challenge the favorite. (hltv.org) This head-to-head result may not be fully accounted for in the current pricing, potentially undervaluing Ursa's chances.

The case for TDK

• Higher World Ranking: TDK is ranked #69 globally, compared to Ursa's #94, indicating a higher overall skill level. (hltv.org)
• Recent Performance: TDK has demonstrated strong form, including a decisive 2-0 victory over los kogutos in March 2026, showcasing their ability to dominate opponents. (liontips.com)
• Map Pool Strength: TDK has shown proficiency on various maps, which could provide a strategic advantage in map selection and performance.

The case for Ursa

• Recent Head-to-Head Victory: Ursa defeated TDK 2-1 in March 2026, demonstrating their capability to overcome higher-ranked teams. (hltv.org)
• Competitive Form: Ursa has been competitive in recent matches, including a narrow 2-0 loss to 100 Thieves in June 2026, with both maps ending 13-11. (hltv.org)
• Potential Undervaluation: The market's heavy favoritism towards TDK may not fully account for Ursa's recent performances and head-to-head success, suggesting potential value in the underdog position.