Is Walczaki's Favoritism Over Oxuji Esports Justified?

The market currently positions Walczaki as a modest favorite over Oxuji Esports in the upcoming CS2 Best-of-3 match, implying an approximate 60% probability of victory. This pricing reflects Walczaki's higher world ranking and recent performance metrics. However, Oxuji Esports' recent form and map-specific strengths suggest potential for an upset.

Why the market is priced here

Walczaki's higher HLTV ranking (#40) compared to Oxuji Esports (#67) suggests a stronger overall performance, justifying their status as favorites. Their win rate of 66.7% further supports this position. However, Oxuji Esports' recent form, including a 55% win rate over the past 30 days, indicates they are competitive. The market's implied probability of approximately 60% for Walczaki may not fully account for Oxuji's potential, especially considering their recent performances.

The case for Walczaki

• Higher HLTV Ranking: Ranked #40, indicating a stronger performance history.
• Superior Win Rate: 66.7% win rate suggests consistent success.
• Balanced Play: CT win rate of 57.0% and T win rate of 52.6% demonstrate versatility.
• Effective Pistol Rounds: 52.7% pistol win rate can provide early round advantages.

The case for Oxuji Esports

• Competitive Recent Form: 55% win rate over the past 30 days indicates improving performance.
• Map Strengths: Strong performances on Nuke (61% win rate) and Dust II (58% win rate) could be advantageous.
• Resilient Roster: Stable lineup with players like nitzie and k1ssly contributing to team cohesion.
• Underdog Potential: Lower market expectations may reduce pressure, allowing for a more aggressive playstyle.

By the numbers

Metric	Walczaki	Oxuji Esports
HLTV Rank	#40	#67
Win Rate	66.7%	46.3%
CT Win Rate	57.0%	51.2%
T Win Rate	52.6%	47.8%
Pistol Win Rate	52.7%	45.1%
Recent 30-Day Win Rate	N/A	55%
Nuke Win Rate	N/A	61%
Dust II Win Rate