Is Tommy Paul Overvalued as the Favorite Against Hurkacz?

Tommy Paul is priced as a modest favorite with an implied probability of ~65% against Hubert Hurkacz in their upcoming Wimbledon match. The market's confidence in Paul likely stems from his recent form and ranking advantages. However, Hurkacz's potential for an upset, given his past performances on grass, challenges this pricing.

Why the market is priced here

The market's ~65% implied probability for Tommy Paul reflects his higher ATP ranking and recent performance metrics. Paul has shown consistency in recent tournaments, which may justify the premium. However, the variance typical of grass-court matches and Hurkacz's capability on this surface suggest that the market may not fully account for potential upsets.

The case for Tommy Paul

• Recent Form: Paul has a 7-3 record in his last 10 matches, indicating strong current form.
• ATP Ranking: Currently ranked higher than Hurkacz, which often correlates with better performance.
• Head-to-Head Record: Paul leads their head-to-head encounters, providing a psychological edge.

The case for Hubert Hurkacz

• Grass-Court Success: Hurkacz has historically performed well on grass, which could disrupt Paul's rhythm.
• Serve Strength: Known for a powerful serve, Hurkacz can dominate shorter points, crucial on grass.
• Underdog Potential: The market may undervalue his potential for an upset given his style and past performances.

By the numbers

Metric	Tommy Paul	Hubert Hurkacz
Last 10	7-3	5-5
ATP Rank	15	19
Head-to-Head	3-1	1-3
Grass Win %	65%	70%

The head-to-head and grass win percentage suggest a closer contest than the market implies.

Mirrored intelligence

The tracked sharps align with the market's favorite, Tommy Paul, though confidence is low with limited positioning. This alignment suggests some trust in Paul's form but also reflects cautious sentiment given the variance on grass.

Market scorecard

Factor