Is England Undervalued as a 2026 World Cup Underdog?

The market heavily favors No with an approximate implied probability of ~85% for England not winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This pricing likely reflects England's historical performance and perceived competitive disadvantages. However, recent changes in management and player development could challenge this view.

Why the market is priced here

The market's ~85% probability for No suggests a strong belief in England's historical struggles in major tournaments and the competitive landscape they face. England's past World Cup performances, including their failure to reach the finals since 1966, contribute to this sentiment. Additionally, the presence of traditionally strong teams like Brazil, France, and Argentina further justifies this pricing. However, the market might not fully account for recent improvements in England's squad depth and tactical changes under new management.

The case for No

• Historical Record: England has not won a World Cup since 1966, with frequent exits in the knockout stages.
• Competitive Field: Teams like Brazil, France, and Argentina are consistently strong contenders.
• Pressure and Expectations: High expectations often lead to underperformance in major tournaments.
• Injury Concerns: Key players have had injury issues in the past, affecting squad stability.

The case for Yes

• Managerial Change: Thomas Tuchel's appointment has brought tactical flexibility and renewed energy.
• Emerging Talent: Players like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden are in peak form, adding creativity.
• Recent Form: England's strong group stage performance, including a 4-2 win against Croatia, shows potential.
• Tournament Dynamics: Knockout tournaments can be unpredictable, offering opportunities for upsets.

By the numbers

Metric	No	Yes
Last 10	7-2-1	4-3-3
Goals for	22	12
Goals against	8	10
Clean sheets	5	2
FIFA rank	14	66
Avg xG	1.94	1.02
Win %