Is Ivory Coast Undervalued in the World Cup Market?

The market currently prices No as a heavy favorite for Ivory Coast winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with an implied probability of ~100%. This pricing reflects the historical performance and ranking gap. However, the recent form and potential for tournament variance could suggest an undervaluation of Ivory Coast's chances.

Why the market is priced here

The market's heavy leaning towards No is primarily driven by Ivory Coast's historical performance in international competitions and its current FIFA ranking, which is significantly lower than traditional powerhouses. The premium pricing likely accounts for the strength of other teams and Ivory Coast's limited success in past World Cups. However, the implied probability might not fully capture the potential for upsets, especially given the expanded tournament format, which increases variance.

The case for No

• FIFA Ranking: Ivory Coast is currently ranked 66th, far below top contenders, indicating a significant gap in perceived quality.
• Historical Performance: Ivory Coast has never advanced beyond the group stage in previous World Cups, reflecting limited success on this stage.
• Squad Depth: Compared to teams like Brazil or Germany, Ivory Coast lacks depth in world-class players, affecting their competitiveness.

The case for Yes

• Recent Form: Ivory Coast has shown improvement, winning their recent match against Ecuador 1-0, indicating potential momentum.
• Tournament Format: The expanded World Cup format increases the likelihood of upsets, potentially benefiting underdogs like Ivory Coast.
• Sharps' Positioning: Some informed money is positioned on Yes, suggesting skepticism about the heavy favorite status of No.

By the numbers

Metric	No	Yes
Last 10	7-2-1	4-3-3
Goals for	22	12
Goals against	8	10
Clean sheets	5	2
FIFA rank	14	66
Avg xG	1.94	1.02
Win %	70%	40%

The numbers highlight a significant ranking and performance gap, supporting the market's current pricing.