How Polymarket works
Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of real-world events. Polymarket turns those events into tradable markets where prices represent probabilities — what economists call the wisdom of crowds.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a marketplace where you buy and sell shares that represent the probability of a future event. Instead of guessing, traders put real money behind their predictions, which makes the resulting prices remarkably accurate forecasts.
Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market, with thousands of live markets across politics, crypto, sports, finance, culture, and more. Example markets:
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k this year?
- Who will win the next U.S. presidential election?
- Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC?
- Will a specific film win Best Picture at the Oscars?
How share pricing works
Each binary market has two outcomes: YES and NO. Shares trade between $0.01 and $0.99, and the price is the market's estimated probability that the outcome will happen.
| Share price | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| $0.10 | 10% chance |
| $0.35 | 35% chance |
| $0.65 | 65% chance |
| $0.92 | 92% chance |
When a market resolves, the winning outcome pays $1.00 per share and the losing outcome pays $0.00. Lower prices mean more upside per dollar but a lower probability of paying out.
Example trade, step by step
Say a market "Will the Ethereum ETF be approved this year?" is priced at $0.40 — a 40% implied probability. You've done the research and think the real probability is closer to 60%. Here's how the trade plays out:
- Buy 100 YES shares at
$0.40each — total cost$40. - Wait for the event. (You can also sell mid-market if the price moves your way.)
- Resolve. If the ETF is approved, each share pays
$1.00. You get$100back — a$60profit, 150% return.
If the ETF isn't approved, the YES shares resolve to $0.00 and you lose your $40. That's why position sizing matters more than picking the right market.
Why prediction markets are powerful
Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of participants who all have skin in the game. Research has consistently shown they outperform polls, pundits, and individual forecasters — especially for binary events like elections, regulatory decisions, and major announcements.
With Polymarket hosting tens of thousands of live markets, you can find opportunities in almost every domain — from U.S. politics and macro to sports, crypto, and weather.
What makes consistent profits hard
- Information speed. Markets react to news within seconds. By the time you read a headline, the price may have already moved.
- Identifying winning traders. On-chain, every wallet looks the same. Finding wallets that consistently win takes analytics, not eyeballs.
- Timing. Buying at
$0.40versus$0.60on the same market is the difference between 150% and 66% upside. - Liquidity. Not every market has the volume to enter and exit cleanly.
Where Mirrored fits in
Mirrored is a Telegram-native bot built on top of Polymarket. It solves the hard parts of prediction-market trading without making you switch apps:
- AutoPilot — curated lineups of profitable traders we maintain. You pick a lineup; the bot mirrors every entry into your wallet. No need to research wallets yourself.
- Manual copy trading — paste any Polymarket wallet address and the bot mirrors their trades using your own size and risk rules. See how to copy trade on Polymarket for the full walkthrough.
- Telegram-native execution — under 200ms from leader signal to your confirmed fill. No app to install.
- Non-custodial. Your wallet is created by Turnkey on your first message; you can export the seed and take it elsewhere any time.
How Mirrored makes money
Mirrored only charges you when you win — 1% of profit on winning trades, nothing on losing ones. Each trade also pays a flat $0.05 Turnkey transaction fee for the on-chain signature; that goes to Turnkey, not us. No subscription, no signup fee, no spread markup.